Is war in Ukraine a certainty?

No, but the signs are ominous.

As in all conflicts, it depends on who you are listening to. The Russians believe they are in the right to send in troops if necessary to bring stability to the eastern cities. The Ukrainians believe Russian special forces are already at work destabilising the east of Ukraine. NATO is watching in the wings hopng the Russians will calm things, especially with the threat of more economic sanctions. Russia is already feeling economic pain.

I don't much like Mr Putin's stance. He clearly wants to re-create the Soviet Union in some form and is showing the world his flexed muscles. He is ex-KGB and doesn't sound a nice man. Maybe I am seeing a biassed view of the man? Could be.

This could all get out of hand so easily and lead to a major European war, or worse. At all costs, this conflict has to be defused and peace allowed to flourish.

And of course the Russian trump card is gas supply to Europe. Ultimately, the west wants Russian gas and will resist too much clout against Russia so they don't turn this off. On the other hand, the export of gas must help the Russian economy. See http://en.ria.ru/infographics/20090609/155206402 .