A reminder than the UK General Election, which is only a few weeks away, is "first past the post" so if you are just one vote behind you lose everything. In the European elections I voted Green, but fear this will be a wasted vote in a "first past the post" contest. Tactical voting will be needed.
example, in my constituency Labour really have no chance of winning as
they only got 6.5% of the vote last time. The Lib Dems (currently in
coalition with the majority Conservative government) have a real chance
of winning - they came a good second last time - especially as we have
UKIP nowadays and the Conservatives could lose some votes to them.
The most probable outcome is a Conservative win again in this constituency.
the outcome is almost certainly another coalition government as the
polls show Labour and Conservatives neck and neck nationally. UKIP support nationally is fading, although I always suspected this would be the case.